Will Blu-ray survive? I came across a column today at ZDNet (see here) that makes some great arguments about why Blu-ray could be dead soon. (Cue Monty Python's "I'm not dead yet" skit.)
For Christmas, we got a 42" Plasma HDTV. Prior to getting this TV, I used to think that the whole HD craze was just a lot of hype. I've discovered that watching non-HD broadcasts on the new TV is painful. We opted for the lower-priced 720p version of the TV. Our original DVD's still look ok on this TV. With time, I suspect we'll purchase an up-converting DVD player. I don't have the desire to purchase a Blu-ray player anytime soon though. If an up-converting DVD player makes all my original DVDs look nice on the TV, why would I want to pay more for a Blu-ray player as well as more for each Blu-ray disc? Switching to Blu-ray just doesn't make financial sense to me.
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The article makes a good point. If you keep the price of the discs and players sky-high, you won't be able to compete with the plethora of HD streaming options. DVDs got big because they were cheap, durable and highly compatible. There was a compelling reason to move from VHS; Blu-Ray doesn't offer enough for non-enthusiasts to consider moving over. I don't think it'll die, but it'll be a lot like the CD was in its early years: the domain of gadget geeks.
I read an article recently, too, about the skepticism and (so far) relative lack of acceptance of Blu-Ray. I'm in the same boat as you; I am holding off getting one because I just don't feel a need yet, and I'm a little bit leery.
I don't know how representative I am of the general market. But we have two flat screen LCD TVs and two tube TVs. They all work OK (even with digital signals). They all play DVDs just fine. I don't see us moving to Blu-Ray any time soon, despite the fact that every DVD we got for Christmas advertises Blu-Ray.
Blu-Ray will not take off until the following happens.
1) Somebody makes a Blu-Ray burner to copy your Blu-Ray (expensive) disks before the grand kids scratch, spill Coke on, or use them as frizbees.
2) Netflix has a better selection and re-read comment 1 :<)
If you've ever watched a Blu-ray disc that was formated in 7.1 surround, you will be able to fully understand the higher price. Blu-ray is AWESOME!!
You have to remember that there are two main improvements that you experience as you upgrade from DVD to Blu-ray. The first and most obvious is 1080p resolution and the other is sound quality. If you only have a 720p TV, then it won't matter anyway. The up-converting DVD player will work fine. And, if you don't have any more than 5.1 surround sound, it also won't make a difference. However, if you do have 1080p and 7.1 potential, Blu-ray is the only way to go.
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